Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Only Obama could beat all Republican contenders according to latest Zogby Poll

From Zogby International:

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton clings to a shrinking lead over Illinois Senator Barack Obama in a national test of Democratic primary voter preference, while Republican Rudy Giuliani is expanding his edge over John McCain, the maverick senator from Arizona, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.

The survey was the first since last week’s very public spat between the Clinton and Obama campaigns over Hollywood fund–raising and the conduct of the first Clinton administration.

The telephone survey, which asked Democrats, Republicans, and non–aligned voters in which primary or caucus they planned to vote next year, was conducted Feb. 22–24, 2007, and included 1,078 likely voters (397 Republicans - MOE: +/- 5.0 percentage points, 439 Democrats - MOE: +/- 4.8 percentage points). The survey's overall margin of error was +/- 3.0 percentage points.

Among those who said they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus for President, Clinton leads with 33% support, up 4% from our last telephone survey in early January. However, Obama has made dramatic gains in the last six weeks, moving from 14% support to 25% backing. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edward is a distant third, winning 12% support. One in five said they were undecided about which Democratic candidate to support.



Clinton 33%

Giuliani 29%

Obama 25%

McCain 20%

Edwards 12%

Romney 9%

Richardson 5%

Rice 7%

Biden 2%

Gingrich 7%

Clark 1%

Brownback 4%

Someone else 3%

Tancredo 1%

Not sure 20%

Hunter 1%

Someone else 4%

Not sure 19%

On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has extended his lead over McCain, leading 29% to 20% in our latest polling. Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who had a successful career in business before entering politics, placed a distant third on the GOP side of the fence. Nearly one in five Republican primary or caucus participants (19%) said they were unsure about whom to support.

Giuliani led McCain in our early January survey, 21% to 17%.

In the Democratic race, Clinton wins solid support among older voters, while Obama has the edge among younger counterparts. Clinton holds a 31% to 24% edge among white Democratic voters, while Obama leads among African–Americans, 36% to 27%. Progressives gave the nod to Obama, while moderates favored Clinton. The two were deadlocked at 30% support among male Democratic voters, but Clinton led among women, 34% to 22%.

In a measurement of how firm the support is for the candidates overall, Clinton’s support is just a bit weaker than that of Obama. A slight majority of Clinton supporters – 54% – said they are likely to change their minds before they actually cast a primary or caucus vote, while 48% of Obama supporters agreed. While his overall support lags, Edwards appears to have strong–minded backers: just 28% said they are likely to jump from the Edwards ship over the course of the next year.

Republican Giuliani is favored in nearly every age bracket, the Zogby telephone survey shows. He leads in all groups. McCain comes close only among those age 50–64, where the former New York mayor’s lead narrows to a 24% to 21% edge. More than one in four in that specific age group said they were yet undecided whom to support.

Among those Republican voters who consider themselves “very conservative,” Romney wins 23%, compared to 22% for former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich. The much–ballyhooed very conservative vote is split even more among second–tier candidates, with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice winning 13% support and Sen. Sam Brownback winning 9%. Giuliani (4%) and McCain (3%) failed to win more than token support among this demographic.

General Election Match–Ups Show Obama Strength

The Zogby International survey also tested several combinations of possible 2008 presidential general election match–ups, pairing the top three candidates from each party:

Giuliani 47%,

Clinton 40%

Giuliani 40%,

Obama 46%

Giuliani 46%,

Edwards 40%

McCain 47%,

Clinton 39%

McCain 40%,

Obama 44%

McCain 47%,

Edwards 38%

Romney 35%,

Clinton 45%

Romney 29%,

Obama 51%

Romney 32%,

Edwards 47%

While 32% gave Bush positive marks for his overall job performance, 68% gave him negative ratings. Older Americans were more likely to give him slightly better ratings than younger counterparts, the survey shows. While 61% of Republicans gave him positive marks, just 9% of Democrats and 26% of self–described independents awarded the President a positive job approval rating.

Overall, just 23% support the President’s handling of the war in Iraq, while 35% said the Iraq war has been worth the loss of American lives.

For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:

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