Sunday, February 03, 2008

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: McCain on a Roll; Clinton, Obama Neck-and-Neck in Key Super Tuesday States

From Zogby International:

Pollster John Zogby: “The Mac Attack appears ready to launch on Super Tuesday. McCain’s leads are commanding, except for in California where Romney leads in Southern California and among women, investors, and voters over 50. Romney holds a double digit lead there among conservatives and leads 56%-18% among very conservative voters. Romney also leads among white voters and among those who say that the war on terror and immigration are top issues.

“McCain will do well because of his big leads in the other states and because of winner-take-all states. But Romney may at least have a strong showing in California. In Missouri, Huckabee is in second place by virtue of strong support with conservative and (especially) very conservative voters.

“On the Democratic side, California, Missouri and New Jersey are so close. Obama’s lead in California is by virtue of solid support in the Bay Area and among Independents (by 20 points), men (20 points), 18-29 year olds (31 points), very liberal voters (22 points), and African Americans (75%-14%). Clinton does well among women (11 points) and among Hispanics (64%-29%).

In Missouri, Obama has solid leads in the St. Louis region (16 points), with Independents (7 points), young voters (16 points), and African Americans (62%-26%). He also leads among moderates and men. Clinton leads in Kansas City (7 points), in the Southwest (16 points), and among liberals (8 points), women (5 points), and among voters over 65 (25 points).

“Obama leads in both Northern and Southern New Jersey, among men, and among African Americans (74%16%), while Clinton again holds Hispanics (19 points), whites (10 points), moderates (8 points), liberals (8 points), Jews (22 points), women (9 points), and voters over 65.

“It is all about delegates and these numbers suggest that both candidates get respectable votes and a lot of delegates.”

Key Super Tuesday States by the Numbers:

New Jersey Republicans

Republicans

1-31/2-2

McCain

54%

Romney

23%

Huckabee

6%

Paul

4%

Undecided/someone else

13%

Sample: 870 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points

New Jersey Democrats

Democrats

1-31/2-2

Clinton

43%

Obama

42%

Gravel

1%

Undecided/someone else

14%

Sample: 868 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points

New York Republicans

Republicans

1-31/2-2

McCain

49%

Romney

23%

Huckabee

8%

Paul

6%

Undecided/someone else

13%

Sample: 974 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.3 percentage points

Georgia Democrats

Democrats

1-31/2-2

Clinton

28%

Obama

48%

Gravel

1%

Undecided/someone else

23%

Sample: 940 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.3 percentage points

Missouri Republicans

Republicans

1-31/2-2

McCain

36%

Romney

22%

Huckabee

27%

Paul

4%

Undecided/someone else

11%

Sample: 868 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points

Missouri Democrats

Democrats

1-31/2-2

Clinton

44%

Obama

43%

Gravel

1%

Undecided/someone else

13%

Sample: 877 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points

California Republicans

Republicans

1-31/2-2

McCain

34%

Romney

37%

Huckabee

12%

Paul

5%

Undecided/someone else

13%

Sample: 1,185 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 2.9 percentage points

California Democrats

Democrats

1-31/2-2

Clinton

41%

Obama

45%

Gravel

1%

Undecided/someone else

15%

Sample: 1,141 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 2.9 percentage points

For a detailed methodological statement on this polling, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1271

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1 Comments:

Blogger James said...

Great looking blog brother. I love the header especially. I look forward to contributing here to an Obama win!!

5:04 PM, February 03, 2008  

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