Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: McCain on a Roll; Clinton, Obama Neck-and-Neck in Key Super Tuesday States

From Zogby International:

Pollster John Zogby: “The Mac Attack appears ready to launch on Super Tuesday. McCain’s leads are commanding, except for in California where Romney leads in Southern California and among women, investors, and voters over 50. Romney holds a double digit lead there among conservatives and leads 56%-18% among very conservative voters. Romney also leads among white voters and among those who say that the war on terror and immigration are top issues.

“McCain will do well because of his big leads in the other states and because of winner-take-all states. But Romney may at least have a strong showing in California. In Missouri, Huckabee is in second place by virtue of strong support with conservative and (especially) very conservative voters.

“On the Democratic side, California, Missouri and New Jersey are so close. Obama’s lead in California is by virtue of solid support in the Bay Area and among Independents (by 20 points), men (20 points), 18-29 year olds (31 points), very liberal voters (22 points), and African Americans (75%-14%). Clinton does well among women (11 points) and among Hispanics (64%-29%).

In Missouri, Obama has solid leads in the St. Louis region (16 points), with Independents (7 points), young voters (16 points), and African Americans (62%-26%). He also leads among moderates and men. Clinton leads in Kansas City (7 points), in the Southwest (16 points), and among liberals (8 points), women (5 points), and among voters over 65 (25 points).

“Obama leads in both Northern and Southern New Jersey, among men, and among African Americans (74%16%), while Clinton again holds Hispanics (19 points), whites (10 points), moderates (8 points), liberals (8 points), Jews (22 points), women (9 points), and voters over 65.

“It is all about delegates and these numbers suggest that both candidates get respectable votes and a lot of delegates.”

Key Super Tuesday States by the Numbers:

New Jersey Republicans

Republicans	1-31/2-2
McCain	54%
Romney	23%
Huckabee	6%
Paul	4%
Undecided/someone else	13%

Sample: 870 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points

New Jersey Democrats

Democrats	1-31/2-2
Clinton	43%
Obama	42%
Gravel	1%
Undecided/someone else	14%

Sample: 868 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points

New York Republicans

Republicans	1-31/2-2
McCain	49%
Romney	23%
Huckabee	8%
Paul	6%
Undecided/someone else	13%

Sample: 974 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.3 percentage points

Georgia Democrats

Democrats	1-31/2-2
Clinton	28%
Obama	48%
Gravel	1%
Undecided/someone else	23%

Sample: 940 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.3 percentage points

Missouri Republicans

Republicans	1-31/2-2
McCain	36%
Romney	22%
Huckabee	27%
Paul	4%
Undecided/someone else	11%

Sample: 868 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points

Missouri Democrats

Democrats	1-31/2-2
Clinton	44%
Obama	43%
Gravel	1%
Undecided/someone else	13%

Sample: 877 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points

California Republicans

Republicans	1-31/2-2
McCain	34%
Romney	37%
Huckabee	12%
Paul	5%
Undecided/someone else	13%

Sample: 1,185 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 2.9 percentage points

California Democrats

Democrats	1-31/2-2
Clinton	41%
Obama	45%
Gravel	1%
Undecided/someone else	15%

Sample: 1,141 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 2.9 percentage points

For a detailed methodological statement on this polling, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1271