Monday, March 03, 2008

Zogby: Obama Barely Overtakes Clinton in Ohio and in Texas Retains Small Edge

(Zogby) UTICA, New York — The Democratic Party presidential primaries in Texas and Ohio remain too close to call between Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, with momentum sloshing back and forth, a new Zogby International poll for Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day telephone tracking poll shows. As voters in these two big states prepare to wrap up their voting tomorrow, neither candidate has been able to break away from the other.

The two delegate-rich states with elections on Tuesday are among the last of the big states left in the primary election season, and both candidates stand to split the delegates under the party's proportional delegate apportionment scheme.

TEXAS - DEMOCRATS 2-29/3-2 2-28/3-1 2-27/29 2-26/28
Clinton 44% 43% 43% 42%
Obama 47% 47% 45% 48%
Gravel 2% 1% 1% 1%
Someone else 1% 2% 3% 3%
Not Sure 6% 7% 8% 7%

The telephone surveys also show Republican front-runner John McCain, the senator from Arizona, moving two steps closer to sealing the GOP nomination, as he continues to enjoy a sizable lead over closest challenger Mike Huckabee of Arkansas.

OHIO - DEMOCRATS 2-29/3-2 2-28/3-1 2-27/29 2-26/28
Clinton 45% 47% 45% 44%
Obama 47% 46% 45% 42%
Gravel 1% 1% 1% 1%
Someone else 2% 1% 3% 5%
Not Sure 6% 5% 6% 9%

In the Democratic race in Texas, Clinton and Obama saw stability set in among the key demographic groups. Obama leads among men, and the two are essentially tied among women. Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, but Obama has made gains in the last day among white voters, where the two are now tied.

Obama continues to enjoy a two-to-one lead among voters under age 30, while Clinton leads 54% to 31% among voters age 65 and older. Obama continues to lead in the Dallas and Houston areas, while Clinton leads in more rural areas, including southern Texas. But in the key swing area of east Texas, Obama has surged into a tie with Clinton. While he trailed her 45% to 38% just a day ago, it was Obama 45%, Clinton 44% in that area at the end of yesterdays polling, but the numbers in that region have been volatile.

In Ohio, there is very little movement as the Democratic candidates have solidified their support among those groups that have come to be familiar supporters of each. Obama leads Clinton among men by a 54% to 39% margin, while Clinton leads Obama among women by a 51% to 42% edge. The Obama increase in support among men is likely what has moved him ahead of Clinton.

Obama continues to lead among Ohio voters under age 50, while Clinton remains strongest among voters over age 50. Clinton leads in the rural areas of Ohio and in Cincinnati, while Obama leads in the Democratic bastion of Cleveland and the state capital of Columbus.

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